Revealing the economic impact of climate extremes in agriculture since 1980
An extensive data collection process was undertaken to characterise the exposed crops and empirical damage and loss data for insured and uninsured agriculture.
Commissioned as part of the fi-compass study by the European Investment Bank (EIB), this project delivers a comprehensive catastrophe risk modeling framework for the agricultural sector across all 27 EU Member States. The study addresses the growing "protection gap" where 70-80% of agricultural losses currently fall on farmers and governments by quantifying climate-driven risks and proposing modernized financial instruments to bolster sector resilience.
Project Highlights
- Multi-Peril Climate Modeling: Applied advanced loss analytics for primary agricultural perils, including drought, frost, hail, and heavy rain. The approach homogenized 40 years of empirical damage data and yield statistics to build robust vulnerability functions.
- Future Risk Projections: Integrated CMIP6 climate models to forecast agricultural losses through 2050. The analysis reveals that annual average losses are expected to grow by over 50%, with extreme disaster years potentially exceeding EUR 90 billion.
- Insurance System Mapping: Developed a comprehensive matrix of national insurance systems across the EU-27. This includes evaluating insurance penetration, subsidy structures, and "risk layering" strategies that distinguish between frequent low-severity losses and rare catastrophic events.
- EU-Level Diversification Analysis: Demonstrated that while individual Member States face extreme volatility (catastrophe years costing 4-5x the average), EU-wide risk sharing reduces this volatility significantly due to geographical diversification.
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